| Abstract. |
Agriculture, particularly the livestock sector, is essential to human progress, contributing to food security and rural livelihoods. India’s poultry sector is a global leader, especially in egg and meat production. Karnataka plays a significant role, ranking 3rd in egg and 4th in meat production. Despite challenges, advancements in technology, disease management, and sustainable practices are crucial for the sector's future, supporting food security, rural development, and global competitiveness. This study evaluates poultry production growth, business performance, export competitiveness, price forecasting, and challenges faced by entrepreneurs in Karnataka. Data was collected from government departments and market reports, analyzed using techniques like ARIMA, NPC, and Rank Based Technique to assess production, pricing, and export performance. It provides a comprehensive analysis of poultry enterprises, focusing on egg and meat production trends, from 2008-09 to 2022-23, across various operational models: Contract-I, Contract-II, andnon-contract poultryenterprises. India’s eggproduction grewbyover130 percent whilemeat production increased by 133 per cent. Egg production showed higher variability, with a coefficientofvariation(CV)of30.43percentandaCuddy-DellaValleIndex(CDVI)of6.99. In contrast, meat production was more stable, with a CVof 25.27 per cent and CDVIof 3.71. Karnataka’s egg production grew by65%, while meat production expanded by1044 per cent, but with high variability. The study identified demographic and economic differences among poultry enterprises. Contract-II participants were older (average age 46.52 years) with more schooling (2.33 years) compared to non-contract groups, who had higher illiteracy rates and relied more on agriculture. Irrigated lands were common among contract participants, while non-contract groups depended more on rainfed lands (19.23%). Financial analysis revealed thatContract-IIparticipantssecuredhigherloans,averaging₹8,00,000fromRRBsand<br/>₹7,50,000 from cooperative banks. However, 11.11 per cent of Contract-II and many Contract-I participants lacked institutional credit, indicating gaps in financial inclusion. Contract-based operations were larger, averaging 14,972 and 11,167 birds per batch, compared to just 283 birds for non-contract enterprises. Standardized production practices in Contract-I and Contract-II enterprises, such as vaccination schedules and space requirements, contributed to operational efficiency. Larger-scale operations had favorable expenditure patterns, with lower fixed costs and higher variable costs like labor and electricity. Profitability also increased with scale, with Contract-I and Contract-II enterprises showing rising net returns from small to very large operations. Non-contract poultry operations were less financially viable, facing high operational costs and modest returns. Non-contract enterprises had longer payback periods and lower returns, relying on hired labor. Financial feasibility analysis showed increasing NPW and IRR for Contract-I and Contract-II operations, while non-contract enterprises had positive outlooks but slower capital recovery. The study found ARIMA models accurately forecast meat prices, but egg prices showed greatervariability.Thestudyhighlightsoperationalchallengessuchashighfeed costs,lackof skilled labor, market access, and financial constraints, emphasizing the need for scaling operations, optimizing finances, and addressing sector-specific issues for sustainable growth and competitiveness in poultry markets.<br/> |
