000			02920nam a2200205 4500
003			OSt
005			20250626163359.0
008			250626b |||||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_cUniversity of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad
041			_aEnglish
082			_a658.93 _bKUM
100			_aKumara Prema C
245			_aMarket Dynamics and Price Behaviour of Bengalgram in Karnataka - an Agribusiness Analysis
250			_aM Sc (Agri)
260			_aDharwad _bUniversity of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad _c2024
300			_a114 _c32 Cms
520			_a Present study explored bengalgram (Cicer arietinum) market dynamics, integration and price forecasting in Karnataka from 2008-09 to 2022-23. It examines growth and instability in bengalgram area, production and productivity at national, state and district levels using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for growth and the Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI) for instability. Results show increased area, production and productivity in India, driven by supportive policies and technological advancements. However, high instability in Karnataka state, linked to rainfall dependency and infrastructure constraints, underscores the need for stability-oriented interventions.Market trends in selected major bengalgram markets namely, Bidar, Kalaburagi and Gadag showed an inverse relationship between arrivals and prices. Seasonal arrival peaked in February and March months lead to temporary price drops, while reduced mid-year arrivals cause prices to rise, demonstrating a strong seasonal influence on pricing and prices peak during October and November months. Addressing these fluctuations requires improved water management, drought-resistant seeds, enhanced storage and Minimum Support Price (MSP) support, especially given the prevalence of agriculture.Market integration analysis using Johansen Co-integration and Granger causality tests indicates long-term price equilibrium across these markets, with Kalaburagi market acting as a price leader influencing both Bidar and Gadag markets. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) further underscores Kalaburagi market’s central role in short-term price adjustments due to its market size and infrastructure.For price forecasting, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model demonstrated high forecasting accuracy, with Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) of5.45 per cent for Gadag, 5.75 per cent for Kalaburagi and 6.86 per cent for Bidar. Despite challenges during volatility, ARIMA provided reliable short-term forecasts, aiding farmers, traders and policymakers. The study underscores the importance of market integration and infrastructure improvements in stabilizing prices and enhancing efficiency, offering insights for sustainable bengalgram strategies in Karnataka and beyond.
700			_aBalachandra K Naik
942			_cTH _eM Sc (Agri) _h658.93 _kKUM _n0 _6658_930000000000000
999			_c71086 _d71086